Executive Summary

Primary-source documents for Q3 2026 are not yet publicly available; analysis anchors on the latest reported quarter (Q3 2025) and S&P Global consensus for Q3 2026, with explicit estimate comparisons and prior-quarter trends for context .
Q3 2025 delivered material beats vs Street: revenue $699.9M vs $663.5M consensus and adjusted EPS $0.80 vs $0.47, despite a $701M non-cash goodwill impairment driving GAAP loss per share of $10.78 .
Full-year 2025 guidance was narrowed: revenue $2.68–$2.74B, adjusted EBITDA $585–$605M, and adjusted EPS updated (lower) to reflect debt refinancing; COVID revenue expected $70–$100M .
Near-term investor narrative: core growth resiliency (Labs and Immunohematology) vs respiratory normalization and donor screening wind-down; 2026 setup hinges on Lex Diagnostics timeline, margin execution, and ERP-driven cash timing normalization .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

Core growth: Non-respiratory revenue rose to $588M (+5% reported; +4% cc), Labs +5% reported; Immunohematology +7.7% reported, showing underlying momentum .
Cost actions: Adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 25% (+180 bps YoY), with GAAP and non-GAAP OpEx down 6–7% from cost-savings initiatives .
Strategic progress: CEO emphasized “expanding margins and accelerating innovation—most recently with the addition of high-sensitivity Troponin on our VITROS platform” .

Respiratory normalization: Respiratory revenue fell to $112M (down ~32% YoY) driven by a 63% decline in COVID revenue .
Impairment and GAAP optics: A $701M non-cash goodwill impairment led to GAAP operating margin of (101%) and GAAP loss per share of $10.78, overshadowing strong non-GAAP results .
Cash flow timing: CFO noted “a disappointing quarter for us for cash flow, primarily driven by the impacts of the system conversions…delaying cash into fiscal Q4,” with adjusted FCF negative $50M .

Metric	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025	Q3 2026E
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$693.0	$614.0	$699.9	$697.9*
Adjusted EPS ($USD)	$0.74	$0.12	$0.80	$0.70*
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$160	$105.8	$177.1	$179.2*
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)	23%	17%	25%	—

Note: *Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Vs Estimates (Q3 2025)

Metric	Street Consensus	Actual	Beat/(Miss)
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$663.5*	$699.9	+$36.4M (beat)
Adjusted EPS ($USD)	$0.47*	$0.80	+$0.33 (beat)
EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$139.5*	$177.1	+$37.6 (beat)

Note: *Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Breakdown (Q3 2025)

KPIs (Q3 2025)

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Total Revenue	FY 2025	$2.60–$2.81B	$2.68–$2.74B	Narrowed
Adjusted EBITDA	FY 2025	$575–$615M	$585–$605M	Narrowed
Adjusted EBITDA Margin	FY 2025	22%	22% (unchanged)	Maintained
Adjusted Diluted EPS	FY 2025	$2.07–$2.57	$2.00–$2.15 (updated lower)	Lowered
COVID Revenue	FY 2025	$110–$140M (Q1 guidance)	$70–$100M	Lowered
FX Impact	FY 2025	Neutral (assumption)	Neutral	Maintained

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1 2025, Q2 2025)	Current Period (Q3 2025)	Trend
Cost-savings & Margin	Q1: +450 bps adj EBITDA margin; reiterate FY guide . Q2: +330 bps; achieved $100M annualized savings .	Adj EBITDA margin 25%, OpEx down 6–7% .	Improving
Respiratory/COVID	Q1: COVID down 53% YoY; respiratory ex-COVID +11% . Q2: respiratory $47M (-20%) .	Respiratory $112M; COVID down 63% .	Normalizing/lower
China/Tariffs/Macro	Q1: tariff headwinds $30–$40M flagged .	Adjusted GM -50 bps YoY; ongoing mitigations .	Headwind mitigated
Lex Diagnostics	Q2: intent to acquire announced .	FDA clearance expected late 2025/early 2026; 2026 margin dilutive; accretive post scale .	Building pipeline
Product Performance (VITROS Troponin, Sofia)	Q1/Q2: Labs momentum .	CEO highlights high-sensitivity troponin; Sofia base “stable and expanding” .	Positive
ERP/FCF Timing	Q1: Adjusted FCF $47M; improving conversion .	ERP conversion delayed cash; adjusted FCF -$50M .	Temporary drag

CEO: “Our third quarter results reflect continued execution and meaningful progress…expanding margins and accelerating innovation—most recently with the addition of high-sensitivity Troponin on our VITROS platform.”
CFO: “Fiscal Q3 was…a disappointing quarter for cash flow…impacts of the system conversions…delaying cash into fiscal Q4.”
CFO on Lex: “Lex will likely have a dilutive impact on margins next year…wouldn’t expect it to be accretive.”
CFO on donor screening exit: “Residual revenue will completely wind down in 2026…expect ~50 bps margin accretion later 2026/early 2027.”

Free cash flow conversion: Management expects normalization as ERP timing effects fade; discussed conversion targets into 2026 .
Lex Diagnostics regulatory/timing: Clearance targeted late 2025/early 2026; North America rollout H2 2026, accretive after scale .
Donor screening wind-down: Headwinds dissipate through mid-2026; stranded costs to be removed to unlock margin accretion .
Installed base strategy: Integrated analyzer placements at 30–40% of Lab base, indicating runway vs competitors; Sofia base “stable and expanding” .

Q3 2025 beats vs S&P Global consensus: Revenue $699.9M vs $663.5M; adjusted EPS $0.80 vs $0.47; EBITDA $177.1M vs $139.5M (see table above; estimates marked with asterisk).
Q3 2026 S&P Global consensus: revenue ~$697.9M, EPS ~$0.70, EBITDA ~$179.2M*.

Note: Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Core franchises (Labs, Immunohematology) continue to offset respiratory normalization, supporting mid-teens adj EBITDA margins while cost actions underpin margin durability into 2026 .
Near-term optics impacted by non-cash impairment and ERP cash timing; expect FCF conversion to improve as system conversion effects roll off .
Donor screening exit removes top-line headwinds by 2026 with ~50 bps margin accretion over late 2026/early 2027 after stranded costs are addressed—favorable for medium-term margin trajectory .
Lex Diagnostics offers strategic optionality but is margin dilutive in 2026; the investment case hinges on scaling manufacturing and placements by 2027–2028 for accretive contribution .
China tariff headwinds and BBP dynamics appear manageable with mitigation actions; monitor adjusted gross margin trajectory and pricing/mix in EMEA/Asia .
Trading setup: Historically strong Q4 seasonality in respiratory and instrument mix could pressure near-term margins; watch execution on ERP cash recovery and FY guidance cadence into early 2026 .
Valuation anchor: Consensus 2026 revenue ~$2.77B with mixed EPS views; target price consensus ~$37.67 indicates divergent analyst opinions—stock likely to be sensitive to 2026 margin/FCF delivery and Lex milestones .

S&P Global disclaimer: All values marked with an asterisk are retrieved from S&P Global.